Spatial modelling of contribution of individual level risk factors for mortality from Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in the Arabian Peninsula
Identifieur interne : 000B86 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000B85; suivant : 000B87Spatial modelling of contribution of individual level risk factors for mortality from Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in the Arabian Peninsula
Auteurs : Oyelola A. Adegboye [Qatar] ; Ezra Gayawan [Nigeria] ; Fahad Hanna [Qatar]Source :
- PLoS ONE [ 1932-6203 ] ; 2017.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Adulte, Adulte d'âge moyen, Analyse spatiale, Arabie saoudite (épidémiologie), Comorbidité, Coronavirus du syndrome respiratoire du Moyen-Orient, Facteurs de risque, Femelle, Flambées de maladies, Géographie, Humains, Infections de l'appareil respiratoire (mortalité), Infections de l'appareil respiratoire (virologie), Infections de l'appareil respiratoire (épidémiologie), Infections à coronavirus (mortalité), Infections à coronavirus (épidémiologie), Mâle, Odds ratio, Politique de santé, Sujet âgé, Théorème de Bayes, Études rétrospectives.
- MESH :
- mortalité : Infections de l'appareil respiratoire, Infections à coronavirus.
- virologie : Infections de l'appareil respiratoire.
- épidémiologie : Arabie saoudite, Infections de l'appareil respiratoire, Infections à coronavirus.
- Adulte, Adulte d'âge moyen, Analyse spatiale, Comorbidité, Coronavirus du syndrome respiratoire du Moyen-Orient, Facteurs de risque, Femelle, Flambées de maladies, Géographie, Humains, Mâle, Odds ratio, Politique de santé, Sujet âgé, Théorème de Bayes, Études rétrospectives.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Adult, Aged, Bayes Theorem, Comorbidity, Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology), Coronavirus Infections (mortality), Disease Outbreaks, Female, Geography, Health Policy, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus, Odds Ratio, Respiratory Tract Infections (epidemiology), Respiratory Tract Infections (mortality), Respiratory Tract Infections (virology), Retrospective Studies, Risk Factors, Saudi Arabia (epidemiology), Spatial Analysis.
- MESH :
- epidemiology : Coronavirus Infections, Respiratory Tract Infections, Saudi Arabia.
- mortality : Coronavirus Infections, Respiratory Tract Infections.
- virology : Respiratory Tract Infections.
- Adult, Aged, Bayes Theorem, Comorbidity, Disease Outbreaks, Female, Geography, Health Policy, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus, Odds Ratio, Retrospective Studies, Risk Factors, Spatial Analysis.
Abstract
Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus is a contagious respiratory pathogen that is contracted via close contact with an infected subject. Transmission of the pathogen has occurred through animal-to-human contact at first followed by human-to-human contact within families and health care facilities.
This study is based on a retrospective analysis of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus outbreak in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia between June 2012 and July 2015. A Geoadditive variable model for binary outcomes was applied to account for both individual level risk factors as well spatial variation via a fully Bayesian approach.
Out of 959 confirmed cases, 642 (67%) were males and 317 (33%) had died. Three hundred and sixty four (38%) cases occurred in Ar Riyad province, while 325 (34%) cases occurred in Makkah. Individuals with some comorbidity had a significantly higher likelihood of dying from MERS-CoV compared with those who did not suffer comorbidity [Odds ratio (OR) = 2.071; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.307, 3.263]. Health-care workers were significantly less likely to die from the disease compared with non-health workers [OR = 0.372, 95% CI: 0.151, 0.827]. Patients who had fatal clinical experience and those with clinical and subclinical experiences were equally less likely to die from the disease compared with patients who did not have fatal clinical experience and those without clinical and subclinical experiences respectively. The odds of dying from the disease was found to increase as age increased beyond 25 years and was much higher for individuals with any underlying comorbidities.
Interventions to minimize mortality from the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus should particularly focus individuals with comorbidity, non-health-care workers, patients with no clinical fatal experience, and patients without any clinical and subclinical experiences.
Url:
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0181215
PubMed: 28759623
PubMed Central: 5536289
Affiliations:
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Adegboye</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff001"><addr-line>Department of Mathematics, Statistics and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University, 2713 Doha, Qatar</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Qatar</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics, Statistics and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University, 2713 Doha</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>2713 Doha</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gayawan, Ezra" sort="Gayawan, Ezra" uniqKey="Gayawan E" first="Ezra" last="Gayawan">Ezra Gayawan</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff002"><addr-line>Department of Statistics, Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Nigeria</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Statistics, Federal University of Technology, Akure</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Akure</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hanna, Fahad" sort="Hanna, Fahad" uniqKey="Hanna F" first="Fahad" last="Hanna">Fahad Hanna</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff003"><addr-line>Department of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, Qatar University, 2713 Doha, Qatar</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Qatar</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, Qatar University, 2713 Doha</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>2713 Doha</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">PLoS ONE</title><idno type="eISSN">1932-6203</idno><imprint><date when="2017">2017</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Adult</term><term>Aged</term><term>Bayes Theorem</term><term>Comorbidity</term><term>Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology)</term><term>Coronavirus Infections (mortality)</term><term>Disease Outbreaks</term><term>Female</term><term>Geography</term><term>Health Policy</term><term>Humans</term><term>Male</term><term>Middle Aged</term><term>Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus</term><term>Odds Ratio</term><term>Respiratory Tract Infections (epidemiology)</term><term>Respiratory Tract Infections (mortality)</term><term>Respiratory Tract Infections (virology)</term><term>Retrospective Studies</term><term>Risk Factors</term><term>Saudi Arabia (epidemiology)</term><term>Spatial Analysis</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Adulte</term><term>Adulte d'âge moyen</term><term>Analyse spatiale</term><term>Arabie saoudite (épidémiologie)</term><term>Comorbidité</term><term>Coronavirus du syndrome respiratoire du Moyen-Orient</term><term>Facteurs de risque</term><term>Femelle</term><term>Flambées de maladies</term><term>Géographie</term><term>Humains</term><term>Infections de l'appareil respiratoire (mortalité)</term><term>Infections de l'appareil respiratoire (virologie)</term><term>Infections de l'appareil respiratoire (épidémiologie)</term><term>Infections à coronavirus (mortalité)</term><term>Infections à coronavirus (épidémiologie)</term><term>Mâle</term><term>Odds ratio</term><term>Politique de santé</term><term>Sujet âgé</term><term>Théorème de Bayes</term><term>Études rétrospectives</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term><term>Respiratory Tract Infections</term><term>Saudi Arabia</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="mortality" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term><term>Respiratory Tract Infections</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="mortalité" xml:lang="fr"><term>Infections de l'appareil respiratoire</term><term>Infections à coronavirus</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="virologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Infections de l'appareil respiratoire</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="virology" xml:lang="en"><term>Respiratory Tract Infections</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Arabie saoudite</term><term>Infections de l'appareil respiratoire</term><term>Infections à coronavirus</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Adult</term><term>Aged</term><term>Bayes Theorem</term><term>Comorbidity</term><term>Disease Outbreaks</term><term>Female</term><term>Geography</term><term>Health Policy</term><term>Humans</term><term>Male</term><term>Middle Aged</term><term>Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus</term><term>Odds Ratio</term><term>Retrospective Studies</term><term>Risk Factors</term><term>Spatial Analysis</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Adulte</term><term>Adulte d'âge moyen</term><term>Analyse spatiale</term><term>Comorbidité</term><term>Coronavirus du syndrome respiratoire du Moyen-Orient</term><term>Facteurs de risque</term><term>Femelle</term><term>Flambées de maladies</term><term>Géographie</term><term>Humains</term><term>Mâle</term><term>Odds ratio</term><term>Politique de santé</term><term>Sujet âgé</term><term>Théorème de Bayes</term><term>Études rétrospectives</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec id="sec001"><title>Background</title><p>Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus is a contagious respiratory pathogen that is contracted via close contact with an infected subject. Transmission of the pathogen has occurred through animal-to-human contact at first followed by human-to-human contact within families and health care facilities.</p></sec><sec id="sec002"><title>Data and methods</title><p>This study is based on a retrospective analysis of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus outbreak in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia between June 2012 and July 2015. A Geoadditive variable model for binary outcomes was applied to account for both individual level risk factors as well spatial variation via a fully Bayesian approach.</p></sec><sec id="sec003"><title>Results</title><p>Out of 959 confirmed cases, 642 (67%) were males and 317 (33%) had died. Three hundred and sixty four (38%) cases occurred in Ar Riyad province, while 325 (34%) cases occurred in Makkah. Individuals with some comorbidity had a significantly higher likelihood of dying from MERS-CoV compared with those who did not suffer comorbidity [Odds ratio (OR) = 2.071; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.307, 3.263]. Health-care workers were significantly less likely to die from the disease compared with non-health workers [OR = 0.372, 95% CI: 0.151, 0.827]. Patients who had fatal clinical experience and those with clinical and subclinical experiences were equally less likely to die from the disease compared with patients who did not have fatal clinical experience and those without clinical and subclinical experiences respectively. The odds of dying from the disease was found to increase as age increased beyond 25 years and was much higher for individuals with any underlying comorbidities.</p></sec><sec id="sec004"><title>Conclusion</title><p>Interventions to minimize mortality from the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus should particularly focus individuals with comorbidity, non-health-care workers, patients with no clinical fatal experience, and patients without any clinical and subclinical experiences.</p></sec></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Van Doremalen, N" uniqKey="Van Doremalen N">N Van Doremalen</name></author><author><name sortKey="Bushmaker, T" uniqKey="Bushmaker T">T Bushmaker</name></author><author><name sortKey="Munster, Vj" uniqKey="Munster V">VJ Munster</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Cauchemez, S" uniqKey="Cauchemez S">S Cauchemez</name></author><author><name 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X">X Gu</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Wang, Jf" uniqKey="Wang J">JF Wang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Zhang, Tl" uniqKey="Zhang T">TL Zhang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fu, Bj" uniqKey="Fu B">BJ Fu</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Khatab, K" uniqKey="Khatab K">K Khatab</name></author><author><name sortKey="Adegboye, Oa" uniqKey="Adegboye O">OA Adegboye</name></author><author><name sortKey="Mohammed, Ti" uniqKey="Mohammed T">TI Mohammed</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Khatab, K" uniqKey="Khatab K">K Khatab</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fahrmeir, L" uniqKey="Fahrmeir L">L Fahrmeir</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Adebayo, Sb" uniqKey="Adebayo S">SB Adebayo</name></author><author><name sortKey="Gayawan, E" uniqKey="Gayawan E">E 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uniqKey="Mollie A">A Mollié</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Brezger, A" uniqKey="Brezger A">A Brezger</name></author><author><name sortKey="Kneib, T" uniqKey="Kneib T">T Kneib</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lang, S" uniqKey="Lang S">S Lang</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Belitz, C" uniqKey="Belitz C">C Belitz</name></author><author><name sortKey="Brezger, A" uniqKey="Brezger A">A Brezger</name></author><author><name sortKey="Kneib, T" uniqKey="Kneib T">T Kneib</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lang, S" uniqKey="Lang S">S Lang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Umlauf, N" uniqKey="Umlauf N">N Umlauf</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Adegboye, Oa" uniqKey="Adegboye O">OA Adegboye</name></author><author><name sortKey="Kotze, D" uniqKey="Kotze D">D Kotze</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Adegboye, Oa" uniqKey="Adegboye O">OA Adegboye</name></author><author><name sortKey="Leung, Dhy" uniqKey="Leung D">DHY Leung</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Yg" uniqKey="Wang Y">YG Wang</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Alqurashi, K" uniqKey="Alqurashi K">K Alqurashi</name></author><author><name sortKey="Aljabri, K" uniqKey="Aljabri K">K Aljabri</name></author><author><name sortKey="Bokhari, S" uniqKey="Bokhari S">S Bokhari</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Nigeria</li><li>Qatar</li></country></list><tree><country name="Qatar"><noRegion><name sortKey="Adegboye, Oyelola A" sort="Adegboye, Oyelola A" uniqKey="Adegboye O" first="Oyelola A." last="Adegboye">Oyelola A. Adegboye</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Hanna, Fahad" sort="Hanna, Fahad" uniqKey="Hanna F" first="Fahad" last="Hanna">Fahad Hanna</name></country><country name="Nigeria"><noRegion><name sortKey="Gayawan, Ezra" sort="Gayawan, Ezra" uniqKey="Gayawan E" first="Ezra" last="Gayawan">Ezra Gayawan</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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